3 May 2012

The Ascent of (one) Man

Mr Mustard hopes that you like history as he is going to delve into GLA elections back to their first year, the year 2000.

Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Coleman 41,583
Labour Gordon 41,032
Lib Dems Davies 22,295
Green Dunn 14,768
London Socialist Udwin 3,488
UKIP Nielsen 2,115
Maharishi N.P. Derksen 1,081
Turnout 136,384 35%

The number of people who vote for the local candidate can be less than the number who turn out and vote for the mayor.

Look, Brian only won in the year 2000 by 551 votes (if only 551 people had not done this...). That was when hardly anyone knew who he was. Surely after 12 years of going his own way and making many decisions that have proven to be very unpopular enough people will vote against him to send him on his way?

Here are the results for 2004.
Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Coleman 47,640
Labour Anderson 36,121
Lib Dems Simpson 23,603
Green Dunn 11,921
UKIP Nielsen 8,685
Respect Wheatley 5,150
Turnout 135,034 38.4%

There you see the effect of about 5,000 previous labour voters who switched to the conservatives, a majority of 11,521. Turnout up a little but not a significant turnout.

On to 2008

Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Coleman 72,659
Labour Gavron 52,966
Liberal Democrats Russell 22,213
Green Dunn 16,782
UKIP Nielsen 3,678
Christian Adebayo 3,536
English Dems Stevens 2,146
Left List Hoefing 2,074
Veritas Dare 510
Turnout 180,007 47.8%

There has been activity on Twitter suggesting that low turnout is favoured so that Coleman still gets re-elected but given that with a much increased turnout in 2008 a doubled majority perhaps a lower turnout would be preferable. Naturally, one needs the right people to turn out and the right ones to stop at home.

You can see from the above that voting for any candidate other than the Conservative or Labour one is unlikely to lead to your first choice vote winning. Much better to vote tactically in the Anyone But Coleman method to try and make sure we free ourselves of his tyrannical yoke. The five candidates this year are

Coleman - Conservative
Dismore - Labour
Richards - Lib Dem
Poppy - Green
Corby - UKIP

Only the first two have a serious prospect of winning and a recent ComRes poll had Dismore 1% ahead but that poll was based on a small number of electors.

We have had enough of Brian Coleman, please vote Dismore.

Please ask your neighbours and if they ask 2 friends each and so on ( remember the story about the sage who asked for grains of rice from the king with 1 one the first square of a chess board then 2 on the second and then 4 on the third and so on ) by the time20 consecutive requests have been asked by everybody then 1million people will have been asked which is mote than the size of the electorate.

We need this sort of exponential growth to get rid of Brian. If would be great if the effects of blogs and twitter could be measured and maybe they will be one day.

For now, this is Mr Mustard doing his bit to say please let's not suffer Brian and his little ways any longer.

Please hold your nose and Vote for Andrew Dismore (whatever your party allegiance. You can still vote for Ken or Boris and against Brian).

Yours frugally

Mr Mustard

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